Many thanks and a positive nod to Bloomberg News for this incredible exclusive about a potential development for US space exploration:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aGMy_XFWN_VY&refer=home
If Mike Griffin thought he could keep his NASA Administrator post in the Obama Administration, he ought to clear off the desk and polish up his resume for some job hunting. This could be a major repudiation of Griffin's campaign to construct, test and realize this flawed Ares I configuration. Outgoing Administrator Griffin has ardently pushed the Ares I Stick on Congress and the public, while constantly ignoring qualified advice from NASA engineers and US aerospace firms--except for his friendly Shuttle Rocket Booster/Ares I 1st stage maker Morton Thiokol. Again, this is another dreadful example of industry cronyism that has been a sad and prominent hallmark of Bush 43's administration.
This is definitely "change we can believe in!" If the Obama Administration seriously follows though with halting the Ares I Stick, this will reassure the American public about its capacity to achieve space exploration missions. This bold consideration in itself signals a potential end to wasting skilled professionals, precious time and taxpayers' money upon a folly. Another encouraging sign for the future: Team Obama may genuinely learn from and apply history lessons to make things better. In the 1960s space race, NASA benefitted from military cooperation to successfully adapt military launch vehciles for human space fight. Those military rockets proved to be a great boon towards accomlishment of all Project Mercury and Gemini goals before the first Saturn V unmanned orbital flight test happened for Apollo 4 in 1967.
What if Ares I got the ax in favor of Atlas V Heavy or Delta IV Heavy? Modifications will be required to send Orion Crew Launch Vehicle (capsule plus service module) to orbit, which has a mass of 21,500 kg (47,300 lb). However, these proven space launch rockets would shave off development time by a few crucial years...
Case for Lockheed Martin's Atlas V Heavy: 18 out of 18 successful launches for an Atlas V (2000-07),. Although the Growth Phase 2 version with its three parallel Atlas V core boosters is a design of unknown costs, it might deliver 29,000 kg (63,000 lb) into an earth escape trajectory for LEO.
Case for Boeing's Delta IV Heavy: 1 out of 2 launches (2004 and 2007) for total costs slightly over $1 billion. In the 1st test flight, Centaur upper launch stage failure resulted in a different orbit (36350 km circular vs. apogee perigee) for the demonstration satellite. Boeing all ready has a Delta IV Heavy production line, but existing launch pads would require modifications. A Heavy Upgrade 30 is non-existent, although it could place a payload of 27,000 kg (59,000 lb) into a 407km orbit.
As for Ares V, it is unclear if Direct 2.0 or Griffin's preferred Ares V concept will carry the day. An unexpected occurrence may involve substitution of a Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 53/67 vehicle to boost the Altair (45,864kg/101,100 lb.) and Earth Departure Stage into orbit for a rendevous with an Orion CLV per mission plans...
Let's review the choices for the way ahead: spend billions ($) to develop an untested and questionable Ares I design that may be on track for an orbital uncrewed flight test by 2012--if all works out right. Then again, select an Atlas V HeavyGrowth Phase 2 and/or Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 30 that might be available for an simulated Orion CLV payload flight test by late 2010. For now, it appears that the Obama Administration may opt for the latter to save on development costs, accelerate Orion CLV production. There may even be a chance to march long ahead of China's 2019-20 human lunar mission...
Finally, one must give great credit to Mark Wade for this sharp illustration of Atlas V rocket variants and information from that very helpful Encyclopedia Astronautica website.
